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CAN THE AVERAGE BETTOR WIN IN |
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THE LONG RUN BETTING on SPORTS ? |
The laws of probability dictate the player cannot win in the long run. The fact that some players do win over the short-term is the result of only one thing and that is Lady ( LUCK ). Sports betting does not fit this model because it is a game of opinion rather than a game of chance.
People who formulate their own opinions, as opposed to reacting to the opinions of others are labeled ( Handicappers ). A handicapper takes bits of information, digests them, discards some, keeps others and assigns different values to the keepers according to his own perception of a game's muscle. The purpose of this exercise is to estimate the probability of all possible outcomes.
Some handicappers are employed by bookmakers - or are bookmakers, in which case they are called ( Oddsmakers ). Oddsmakers have the added responsibility of handicapping the bettors. If the public is swayed by sentiment to bet a certain team, the betting line must reflect this fact or else the action will be mostly one-sided. From a sportsbook or oddmaker's standpoint a line is flawed when it fails to split the action. From a handicapper's standpoint, a line is flawed when it does not jibe with his projected winner by the pointspread. It is than that the handicapper spots an ( OVERLAY ) steps in and makes a bet.
WHAT IS AN OVERLAY ?
In sports betting an overlay exists when the odds are greater than the probability of winning. Handicapping is searching for "Edges". If a player has enough edges to overcome the Vig, than he has an overlay.
There are 2 types of overlays, (Theoretical ) and (Real). A real or otherwise known as a True overlay, the bettor has a proven mathematical advantage.
In sports betting overlays are seldom real. They are theoretical, meaning that they evolve from educated opinions. If Team A should be favored by 2- points over Team B and if you have the opportunity to bet Team A laying a Pick than you have a Real or True overlay. The odds are in your favor. With proper money-management you will come out ahead in the long run. But in the real world your sportsbook is not going to give you or anyone else any mathematical advantages, or real overlays which brings us to the theoretical overlay.
THEORETICAL OVERLAYS
If your going to beat your sportsbook in the long run, you must have the advantage - bet the overlays - to become "his Vig". How do you get the edge over a sportsbook that already has the edge over you. How do you know you have a theoretical overlay ? Thats where you have to do your handicapping homework.
If your calculations show a True-Risk odds of 7-5 and the sportsbook is laying 9-5, you jump in on this overlay ! Win Lose or Push over a period of time you'll grind out a profit - if your true-risk odds calculations are correct.
How do you know what the true-risk odds should be ?
This is what separates the Winners from the Losers in sports betting.
Veteran Insider of Pro Sports Betting for 30 years and running
You don't handicap pro sports for 30 years and running unless you have an ( EDGE ). For Sonny Daniels at BET on SPORTS 2 Win.com that edge is information. Insider information channeled from behind-the-scenes contacts and backed by Sonny's enduring "Feel for the game". In 1993 Sonny penned The Wise-Guy's Bible, described as a "Key book by or about handicappers and handicapping". He also made a half-time network TV appearance at the 1993 Superbowl to discuss the mechanics of Superbowl wagers.
Read the AboutUs Wiki Article promoting BET on SPORTS 2 Win.com
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The Wise Guy’s Bible by
Tony ‘Sonny’ Daniels
Available on Amazon.com
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